Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.736991 2.084932 2.476363 2.948112 3.499948 4.123692 4.880730
2026-01-11 1.285112 1.738849 2.305119 3.058567 4.028893 5.229967 6.821863
2026-01-18 0.971055 1.453457 2.109846 3.056831 4.374305 6.126261 8.612649
2026-01-25 0.732976 1.200037 1.885724 2.946808 4.523499 6.750370 10.095382
2026-02-01 0.566010 1.005410 1.696183 2.833848 4.624817 7.289850 11.492652
2026-02-08 0.464882 0.888534 1.596400 2.827906 4.866443 8.039196 13.254657
2026-02-15 0.389308 0.796672 1.516775 2.833990 5.115811 8.813155 15.119529
2026-02-22 0.323819 0.707827 1.424298 2.798720 5.283535 9.463718 16.841299
2026-03-01 0.258418 0.604084 1.285157 2.655331 5.239544 9.750206 17.980807
2026-03-08 0.217623 0.541130 1.211072 2.618123 5.374512 10.346129 19.689079
2026-03-15 0.186127 0.491065 1.153214 2.601574 5.541536 11.008526 21.566162
2026-03-22 0.173569 0.481587 1.177731 2.753184 6.047065 12.328608 24.734154
2026-03-29 0.155544 0.455770 1.164166 2.826729 6.413499 13.438028 27.641220
2026-04-05 0.142766 0.440459 1.171864 2.947618 6.891473 14.806862 31.160171
2026-04-12 0.124603 0.406476 1.129768 2.950502 7.120655 15.709095 33.858926
2026-04-19 0.103701 0.359366 1.046791 2.845342 7.101267 16.107988 35.598641
2026-04-26 0.086118 0.317101 0.967764 2.736337 7.057448 16.447944 37.242455
2026-05-03 0.075428 0.293256 0.932803 2.730711 7.248534 17.296275 39.995494
2026-05-10 0.066611 0.273093 0.904148 2.736646 7.466712 18.220690 42.980273
2026-05-17 0.057724 0.250086 0.862869 2.702489 7.582749 18.928866 45.557001
2026-05-24 0.047259 0.217993 0.787884 2.563593 7.419865 18.992555 46.731354
2026-05-31 0.040943 0.199626 0.751456 2.527554 7.514581 19.654431 49.284005
2026-06-07 0.035923 0.184818 0.723429 2.511525 7.659498 20.445792 52.189717